Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
